Since 2013, David Zhang has published eight medium-term macro views on SA: Long TLT (Dec 2013), Long BRK (Mar 2014), Long ASHR (Sep 2014), Short RMB (Jan 2016), Long USD (Jul 2018), Long RMB (Dec 2018), Short TLT (May 2021), Short MXN and CAD (Dec 2024). The first five were overwhelmingly correct after a one-year period. The sixth view was mired in geopolitics as the RMB lost 1.1% in 2019, but its scenarios-based rationale stayed intact all the way to 2020, when the RMB returned 6.7%. His May 2021 view on the US 10-year yield going up was spot on as the 10-year yield rose from 1.6% to 3% during the subsequent one-year period. His most recent view is on the CAD and MXN depreciating relative to the US dollar due to trade tensions and macro fundamentals.
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